So, How'd We Do? (Better than Stacey Campfield)

Let's take a journey back to a more innocent time.

A time when Stacey Campfield was still talking to the media.

A time when I spelled Stacy Campfield's first name incorrectly, without the 'e'.

Remember those predictions? How did we do? (This post best accompanied by the music of Frank Sinatra, "My Way")

Stacey Campfield likes to point at people and things.
And so I face the final curtain...

1.) United States Senate (GOP): Lamar Alexander vs. Joe Carr

Prediction: Alexander wins easily with 63% of the vote.

Result (as of 8-8-14): Alexander takes 51% of the vote to Carr's 42%.

My excuse for being so far off: The third and fourth candidate on the ballot gobbled up 7% of the total amount of votes in this primary. That's not fair. In a two-party system you can't expect me to account for random people that get enough signatures to be on a primary ballot. 

campfield points
I'll see you in D.C. Senator Alexander!

2.) United States House of Representatives, District 2 - John Duncan, Jr. vs. Jason Zachary

Prediction: Zachary considers it a moral victory when he pulls 29% of the vote and the only reason he'd get that is that 30% of the voting population is over 70-years-old and won't know the difference on their ballot.

Result (as of 8-8-14): Duncan wins with 60% of the vote.

My excuse for being so far off: I may have underestimated just how much people are sick and tired of congress right now. I'm curious if that didn't play a role in some of the state-level races as well. People hear "congress" or "house of representatives" and they just assume a politician is a politician.

3.) United States House of Representatives, District 3 - Chuck Fleischmann vs. Weston Wamp

Prediction: It's closer than Fleischmann wants it to be but Chuck squeaks by with 55% of the vote.

Result (as of 8-8-14): Fleischmann wins in a true nail-biter with just 51% of the vote.

My excuse for being so far off: Weston Wamp kind of looks like quagmire from family guy to me.

weston wamp is not zach wamp

4.) Governor: Bill Haslam vs. Mark "Coonrippy" Brown

Prediction: Coonrippy Brown is about to get beat down. This one gets ugly. Haslam takes 73% of the vote, Coonrippy gets about 15% and Zach Wamp gets written in for the remainder. Basil Marceaux gets deux percent.

Result (as of 8-8-14): Haslam wins even bigger than predicted with 88% of the vote. Marceaux took just 1% of the vote, but I'm not convinced these numbers will hold up. :)

My excuse for being so far off: I'm not sure on this one. I mean, Haslam hasn't gone too far awry with anything in his first term but it's a tough case to make to say the state is considerably further ahead than other states. Maybe looking at the other high profile Republican led states (Wisconsin, South Carolina, etc.) you could say that Tennessee is faring better, creating more jobs and building something. Either way, no shock that Haslam won... just shock over the fact that 88% of the vote went his way.

There's no telling if I'll ever be able to use this photo again. So: Behold! Coonrippy!

5.) State Senate, District 7: Stacy Campfield vs. Richard Briggs

Prediction: Campfield is out but will be back on a ballot very soon. Briggs wins bigger than most think with 52% of the vote. (A third candidate, Mike Alford is also on the ballot here... pretty much a non-factor but didn't want to fail to mention him).

Result (as of 8-8-14): Well, I picked the winner but my "bigger than most think 52%" was way off. Briggs took 67% of the vote, which is a landslide by all accounts. 

My excuse for being so far off: I think, like the Steve Hall race, that the old GOP guard is dying in Knox County. It may be transplants (like myself), a drive for change from the status quo, hatred of any standing politician, or just the impression that Campfield was selfish and attention seeking. I don't know the reason. Oh well, I tried. I picked this race... and did it my way.

3.) State House, District 13: Jason Emert vs. Eddie Smith

Prediction: Emert wins in a nail-biter with 53% of the vote.

Result (as of 8-8-14): I should have listened to Steve Phillips, the old WBIR sports guy. He's a big Eddie Smith supporter and Smith took this race by about 30 votes. Yes, 30. As in, 10 fewer than the typical roster of a major league baseball team.

My excuse for being so far off: Eddie Smith was less edgy. I think I compared him to vanilla ice cream. In an election year when "statesmen" were held in high regard, I should have seen this coming.

6.) State House, District 18: Steve Hall vs. Martin Daniel

Prediction: Hall wins with 55% of the vote in a race that's closer than I would have predicted 6-months ago.

Result (as of 8-8-14): Martin Daniel takes this one, with 51% of the vote.

My excuse for being so far off: Billboard advertising is effective? Apparently so.

The record shows I took the blows and did it my way!
I love elections. I love the horse-race style of media coverage. I can't help it. Handicapping these races is like the ultimate form of playing bookie to me. I wish that we had more elections that people cared about so we'd get hit with more political advertising. No joke. That's not sarcasm. I'd rather see an awkward Scottie Mayfield describe the night Weston Wamp knocked on his door than hear some "once you pop you can't stop" commercial. 

Oh, and thanks to WATE for the tool that is most easiest to use (at least that I've found) for examining election results.



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